Friday · 23 Oct 2026

Today's signals

Daily supply and demand zones with 4H entries, trendlines as the A+ bonus. Tap any signal for its levels, correlations and seasonality.

Season nowLoading this month's Almanac lean…
Signal board

Open and closed signals

Each signal locks with an ID and timestamp. Levels never change after posting; close and breakeven updates show as the trade plays out.

LOADING — fetching live prices for 35 markets and running the scanner…
Markets

Live prices and what's in play

Every market the scanner checks, refreshed every 5 minutes. Gold marks a market sitting at a fresh zone or trendline right now, where a signal could form on the next 4H close.

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News

Economic calendar and how it hits each pair

Medium and high-impact releases for this week and next. Before a release you see what the forecast implies and which way each pair would likely move. After it, you see how price actually reacted. New signals are paused from 60 minutes before to 30 minutes after high-impact news for that pair.

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Calendar: Forex Factory weekly feed (times shown in your time zone). The feed does not publish actual results, so "Released" shows the measured price reaction in the hour after, which is what moved the pair.

Trader tools

Size it right. Check the link. Know the calendar.

Check these before taking any signal. A good entry still loses money if the lot size is wrong or you're holding three versions of the same trade.

Position size calculator

How many lots to trade so a stop-out costs only what you planned.

Risk amount$25.00
Lot size0.13
Pip value / lot$10.00

Pip values are approximate for a USD account. Round lots down, never up.

Two-trade check

Thinking of holding two trades at once? See whether they are the same bet, a hedge, or independent.

Correlation explorer

Every forex pair, metal and index. Pick one to see what moves with it and what moves against it.

−1 moves opposite0 unrelated+1 moves together
Moves with
Moves against
Show full matrix for Majors

Strength guide: 0.70 or more is strong, 0.40 to 0.69 is moderate, under 0.40 is weak. Showing approximate typical values until live data loads.

Stock Trader's Almanac

Seasonal edge, translated for forex, gold and indices

The Almanac records how US stocks have tended to behave by month, cycle year and calendar event. Stocks set the market's risk mood, and risk mood moves currencies. Use it as a tiebreaker, never as a signal on its own.

Coming up

Almanac dates and market events, counted down from today.

How to use it on a trade

Season agrees with the chartTake the setup at full planned size.
Season is neutralTrade the chart alone. Most days fall here.
Season is against the chartHalf size, or skip unless it is an A+ setup.
Thin or event dayHolidays, half-days, witching and elections: smaller size, wider stops, no new trades in the last hour.

Risk mood map

When stocks leanUsually strongerUsually weaker
BullishAUD, NZD, CAD, indices, AUDJPY, NZDJPYJPY, CHF, USD
BearishJPY, CHF, USD, often goldAUD, NZD, indices, AUDJPY

Month by month

The Almanac's typical character for each month. The current month is highlighted.

Four-year presidential cycle

The Almanac's best-known cycle. Markets have tended to follow the election calendar.

Recurring patterns

Best Six MonthsNovember through April has historically been the stronger half of the year. May through October has been the weaker half.
Month turnThe last trading day and first few days of a month have tended to be strong as new money arrives.
Pre-holiday daysThe trading day before a market holiday has historically leaned bullish.
Options expirationThe third Friday of each month. Expiration weeks can pin prices, and the week after a quarterly triple witching has often been soft.
Down Friday, Down MondayA weak Friday followed by a weak Monday has often warned of more downside.
Quarter endFund rebalancing in the final days of March, June, September and December can move the dollar and indices.

These are historical tendencies from US stock market data, summarized in our own words. They tilt the odds and often fail in a given year. Forex readings are our translation through risk mood, not Almanac statistics.

The strategy

Two tools. The best trades use both.

Every Liquidity Ledger signal starts at a fresh supply or demand zone. A trendline third touch at the same spot makes it the A+ setup. In a 2-year test with spreads, trendline bounces on their own lost money, so they no longer post alone. Each one has to pass the checklist below before it posts.

SETUP 1

Supply & Demand Zones

Mark the base a strong move started from. When price returns to it, the unfilled orders there push it away again.

  • Zone drawn on the daily chart, entry timed on 4H
  • Fresh zones only: first three returns
  • Buy at demand, sell at supply
  • Stop beyond the far edge of the zone
  • One target at 1:2
SETUP 2

Trendline Bounce

Connect two higher lows into rising support (or two lower highs into falling resistance) and trade the third touch.

  • Line on the 4H chart through clean swing points
  • Entry on the third touch with a rejection close
  • Stop below the line and the touch wick
  • A close through the line cancels the setup
  • Used as confirmation at a zone, not as a signal on its own
A+ SETUP · BOTH TOOLS

Trendline + Demand Zone

This is the setup in the before/after charts. Price pulls back to rising support right where the last rally started. Two reasons to buy in one spot gives the highest-confidence signals.

  • Third touch of the trendline lands inside a fresh demand zone
  • Market entry on the 4H rejection close
  • Stop below the zone, not the line, so a wick through the line does not take you out
  • One target at twice the risk (1:2)
Demand zone TP · prior high Rising support Touch 1Touch 2Entry
Before: third touch lands in demand, entry posted, projected path dashed.

The checklist

  • A fresh daily supply or demand zone (first three returns). Required.
  • Rejection candle closes on the 4H. Required (removing it halved the edge per trade).
  • Trade with the daily trend: price on the right side of the daily 50 EMA. Required (without it the strategy lost money).
  • Spread + slippage no more than 10% of the risk. Required (trades above that lost money).
  • Trendline third touch at the zone: shown as A+, but too rare to prove it adds anything.
  • Almanac season: when it is against the trade, Size says Half size.

No new signals from 60 minutes before to 30 minutes after high-impact news for that pair's currencies (not testable on history: no free historical calendar).

How a signal closes

  • Posted when the 4H candle has fully closed. Results assume you fill at the next candle's open, not the posted close
  • Stop hit: −1R, plus costs. If price gaps past the stop, the gap price is used
  • Target hit: +2R, about +1.9R after typical costs
  • Still open after 5 days: closed at market
  • If the stop and target are both inside one candle, the stop is assumed to hit first
How to trade a signal

One stop. One 1:2 target. Check the status first.

Every signal has one stop loss and one target at twice the risk (1:2). In the audit, a single 1:2 target made more after costs than taking partial profit at 1R, 2R and 3R. Only take signals marked TESTED or LIMITED DATA, and treat everything as demo until the forward test has enough closed trades.

Placing the trade

  • Check the status: skip anything marked NO PLAY
  • Enter at market as close to the posted entry as you can. If price has already moved 0.3R toward the target, the signal shows NO PLAY: skip it
  • Set the stop and the target exactly as posted
  • Size with the calculator so a stop-out costs 0.5–1% of the account (half that when Size says Half size)

While it runs

  • Leave the stop and target alone: moving the stop to breakeven did not help in testing
  • If it has not finished after 5 days, close it at market
  • Before high-impact news on the pair, you can take it off or reduce size: the signal sheet lists the events
  • Never hold two signals that the correlation check calls the same bet at full size
Track record

Results in R, losses included

We report every closed signal in risk units (R), so results mean the same thing on any account size. Every closed signal stays in the log, wins and losses.

Forward test (demo, logged live). Every new alert is saved the first time the scanner sees it, with the real time and the price at that moment, and is never edited afterwards. These are the only results here that were not calculated after the fact. No verdict until at least 50 have closed.

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Backtest: 2-year audit with realistic costs

Audit, 27 Oct 2026 (Nov 2024 to Oct 2026, 35 markets, fills at the next candle's open, costs = 1.5 × typical spread): 193 trades, 52.8% wins, +0.37R per trade after costs (95% range +0.19 to +0.55), +71R in total, worst drawdown 12.8R, 18 of 21 months positive. Walk-forward test on data the settings were never tuned on: 51 trades, +0.41R per trade (95% range +0.02 to +0.79). Both halves of the period were positive (+0.32R and +0.44R per trade).
Removed or not used, because testing showed no benefit: trendline-only signals (−0.04R per trade), 1-hour entries (lost money), dropping the daily trend filter (lost money), the room-to-target filter (added nothing), partial profits at 1R/2R/3R (lower than one 1:2 target), tight first targets used by many signal apps (higher win rate, much lower profit), liquidity sweeps, fair value gaps and break-of-structure confirmation (no improvement), and EURGBP (lost money in 21 tests). Not tested: VWAP and SMT divergence (the free data has no forex volume and no matched feeds), order blocks beyond the zones already used.
Caveats: the strategy family (daily zones, 4H entries, trend filter) was chosen using this same 2-year history, so the backtest is optimistic. The walk-forward result is the more honest number, and its range still comes close to zero. Prices are mid quotes from a free feed, not your broker's bid/ask. Only the forward test can confirm the edge.

Simulated signals, last 12 months

Recalculated from past prices with today's rules. These were not posted live, so they are a simulation, not a track record.
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Simulated figures are before costs. Nothing on this page is from a live trading account, and past results do not guarantee future ones.

FAQ

Common questions

What does "non-repainting" mean here?

Signals are only calculated on closed 4H candles. Once posted, the direction, entry, stop and targets never change. If the trade fails, the stop takes it out and the loss stays on the record.

What markets do you cover?

35 markets: 7 major and 17 cross forex pairs, gold, silver and platinum, six stock indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei), the US Dollar Index and WTI oil. Prices come from Yahoo Finance's free feed; metals use COMEX futures, which track spot closely, and quotes can differ slightly from your broker.

What do TESTED, LIMITED DATA and NO PLAY mean?

Each signal is checked against the audit. TESTED: the market had 15 or more historical tests and did not fail. LIMITED DATA: 5 to 14 tests, so only the strategy-wide result applies. NO PLAY: fewer than 5 tests (not enough data), the market lost money in testing, the price feed is delayed, or price has already moved too far from the entry. Nothing is labeled high probability: the strategy-wide win rate is about 53%, and the edge comes from winners being twice the size of losers.

Do I need experience?

You should know how to place a limit order and set a stop loss. The Strategy section explains both setups, and every signal shows why it qualified.

How much should I risk per trade?

We suggest 0.5–1% of your account per signal. Results are reported in R so you can size to your own risk.